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Fertility estimates from the 2013-2014 DHS, DR Congo are they good? [message #8227] Fri, 18 September 2015 11:02 Go to next message
Kirill is currently offline  Kirill
Messages: 2
Registered: September 2015
Location: New York
Member
Dear All,

Our section is working on estimating fertility trends for all countries in the world, period 1950-2015, and the DHS program is one of the major data sources we are using. Attached file COD_DATA_Fertility_Export.xlsx shows the estimates of TFR from the 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects together with empirical data I have collected. The 2007 DHS shows that TFR is about 6.3 and 2013-2014 DHS that it is about 6.66. The U.N. estimate for 2010-2015 is 6.15.
Is any reason to believe that the 2013-2014 DHS overestimates fertility and it should be included from the estimation process? Do you know if there are any severe problems with that DHS as re. fertility?

Thank you in advance,
Kirill Andreev


Linkedin: http://goo.gl/4TOAJF

Disclaimer
The views expressed in the paper do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the United Nations Secretariat

[Updated on: Fri, 18 September 2015 11:28]

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Re: Fertility estimates from the 2013-2014 DHS, DR Congo are they good? [message #8233 is a reply to message #8227] Fri, 18 September 2015 17:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Reduced-For(u)m
Messages: 292
Registered: March 2013
Senior Member


Can't quite tell if it is relevant, but there is always the age-reporting problem discussed by occasional commenter Bruno Schoumaker:

http://www.ucl.be/cps/ucl/doc/demo/documents/DT_SPED_30_corr ige.pdf

That paper probably has more info than you want, but if you skip down to Figure 5 on page 26 you can sorta just see the problem. I believe there are some other age-reporting issues in the DHS data as well, and my experience is that these get worse the farther back you go - partly because you get to older people who remember less well, and partly because the farther you go back the less likely someone is to have a birth certificate. Of course, this isn't so much a DHS problem as a general problem - if people don't know their or their children's exact birthdates or real ages, you can't do much about it.
Re: Fertility estimates from the 2013-2014 DHS, DR Congo are they good? [message #8234 is a reply to message #8233] Fri, 18 September 2015 18:09 Go to previous message
Kirill is currently offline  Kirill
Messages: 2
Registered: September 2015
Location: New York
Member
Thanks a lot. I will definitely look at it.

Linkedin: http://goo.gl/4TOAJF

Disclaimer
The views expressed in the paper do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the United Nations Secretariat
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